The worldwide optical market increased 8.9% quarter-over-quarter and decreased 5.2% year–over-year. Last quarter, we projected that providers would post revenue of half a billion dollars below 2011 total spend, which is exactly what happened, because 1) new equipment and 100G revenues were down ~30% in 2012 compared to shipment revenues in 2011, and 2) major Tier 1s have excess capacity on their networks which is slowing their migration to 100G or causing them to move at a slower pace to upgrade capacity only where it is really needed.
Once again content providers dominated the market; deployments were up 50–70% although the revenue paid to vendors was down 30%. Positive points show accelerating revenues for almost all vendors not focused on Tier 1s. Reported profit margins were up for the same group. We expect this trend to continue into 2013.
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